The Madman Theory: Is Trump a Strategist, or a Madman?

How Nixon and Trump weaponized unpredictability in U.S. foreign policy

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The Madman Theory was introduced in 1517 when Niccolò Machiavelli said, “in certain circumstances, it is a very wise thing to simulate madness.” However, it was first and most prominently used in practice in the context of international politics under the Nixon administration in conjunction with his Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger. His goal was to create a unipolar world in which the United States was the most feared and respected country in geopolitics. Throughout Nixon’s political career, he gained power by marketing himself as a raging anti-communist who was willing to use whatever means necessary to ensure the prosperity of democracy and the free world led by the United States of America. Once Nixon took office, he kept this reputation by threatening North Vietnam, saying that if it didn’t come to the negotiating table, he wouldn’t be reluctant to use nuclear power to end the war. The goal of this use of the Madman strategy was to scare North Vietnam into thinking that Nixon was erratic. Nixon was the first president who used the Madman Theory in his administration’s foreign policy to assert power and dominance. That is, until Donald Trump rode down his escalator to announce his 2016 Presidential campaign. Trump’s tactic in handling international relations is almost identical to Nixon and Henry Kissinger’s foreign policy because they both used the Madman Theory, which entails acting uncontrollable and unpredictable. However, Trump’s implementation differs from Nixon’s because Trump has used it in every realm of politics. Trump has also used the Madman Theory in a different way than Nixon because he acts irrational and erratic partly on instinct as opposed to strategy, whereas Nixon handpicked which scenarios and times he would act like a madman for strategic purposes.

As soon as Trump entered the political atmosphere, many of his policies paralleled those of Nixon, especially in terms of foreign policy. Trump indirectly stated that he would use the Madman strategy in his administration’s foreign policy when he said that “we must as a nation become more unpredictable.” Unpredictability was one of the founding principles of Nixon and Kissinger’s foreign policy, but it also fell under the umbrella of Niccolò Machiavelli’s theory. By becoming unpredictable, a leader ensures that both rivaling and allied nations begin to fear their country because there is no way to think ahead. In a game of poker, one of the most essential strategies to victory is ensuring that your opponents never know your cards. Similarly, in geopolitics, it is essential that no one can know your next move except yourself. Trump ensures that no other nation knows his next moves by making promises that seem promising but fail to materialize. The uncertainty of the reliability of his words makes his actions nearly impossible to predict, posing a threat to any rivaling nation or political opponent. Trump has also made hollow promises in the Middle East. For example, he promised to replace the JCPOA (Iran Nuclear Deal) with a much better deal. However, he pulled out of the deal during his first term in office, and never created the replacement he’d promised. When Trump doesn’t fulfill these promises, it creates uncertainty among other countries. The leaders with which he’s negotiating won’t know his goals or how he wants to achieve them.

Another important part of the Madman theory used by both Nixon and Trump is acting erratic. By threatening to use nuclear weapons on North Vietnam, Nixon instilled fear by presenting himself as a ruthless leader willing to do whatever it took to achieve his aspirations. The goal was to scare both the Soviets and the Democratic Republic of Vietnam into negotiation. Through peaceful negotiation, Nixon would attempt to use détente to ease tensions and possibly reach a peace agreement. Trump used this strategy in a much more direct way during the Korean-U.S. Free Trade Agreement talks. This was a trade deal between South Korea and the U.S. to reduce tariffs and expand economic ties. Trump ordered Robert Lighthizer, his chief trade negotiator, to inform South Korean officials that he was an unpredictable madman that might withdraw from the deal at any moment. He told Lighthizer, “You tell them if they don’t give the concessions now, this crazy guy will pull out of the deal.” As a result, South Korea did provide some of the concessions Trump wanted. Another example of Trump acting erratic for strategic purposes was during tension between the United States and North Korea. After many threats to the United States, Trump publicly stated that “North Korea best not make any more threats to the U.S.; they will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.” This implied that he would use nuclear force if deemed necessary. Trump has clearly and explicitly acted like a madman in the same way Nixon did during his presidency to cause turmoil throughout the international political system - just the way Machiavelli would have advised.

Trump has acted like an unpredictable madman since the moment he stepped on the 2016 Republican primary debate stage. But this begs the question: Is his unpredictability a deliberate strategy, or is he simply erratic? While both Nixon and Trump have implemented the madman strategy in foreign policy, their approaches differ. Nixon often used unpredictability and irrationality to instill fear in enemies. It deterred adversaries from taking extreme actions against the US out of fear of an unpredictable response. Trump, however, is using irrationality and unpredictability not only against enemies, but also allies. Recently, the 47^th President has threatened NATO, warning that if member nations fail to increase defense spending, the US would withdraw from the alliance. Additionally, President Trump has threatened allied countries with tariffs, further straining relationships. Unlike Nixon, whose unpredictability was confined to adversaries, Trump’s erratic behavior has shown in all political landscapes with both allies and enemies.

Nixon strategically and surgically implemented the Madman strategy in foreign policy for the purpose of bringing North Vietnam to the negotiation table. He intentionally acted unpredictable and irrational to scare his adversaries. Trump, however, has shown that his irrationality and unpredictability may not be a strategy - he may simply be an erratic figure. Since 2022, Trump has clearly changed his stance on the war in Ukraine. When the invasion first began, he called it a “holocaust.” He repeatedly condemned Russia for the invasion and supported Ukraine. Recently, his position has almost flipped. Not only has Trump excluded Zelensky from negotiations in Saudi Arabia, but he has also tried to turn the Ukrainian pleas for peace into American profit. So far, Trump has attempted to strike a deal with Zelensky which would provide US 50% of profits made by the sale of Ukrainian rare earth minerals. The deal doesn’t guarantee that the US will keep supporting Ukraine in its defense from Russia. Clearly, Trump has changed his outlook on the war in Ukraine; proving that he doesn’t necessarily make plans and stick to them. Instead, he determines the best possible outcome for the US and does everything in his power to get to that result – even if it means weakening the position of an ally.

During President Richard Nixon’s presidency in the late-60s to mid-70s, he and Henry Kissinger clearly used Niccolò Machiavelli’s Madman Theory in their foreign policy. As Trump took office in 2016, his foreign policy’s grand strategy looked almost identical to Nixon’s. The two took similar paths to achieve their ambitious goals. With both statements and actions from Trump, it is evident that he is taking a page out of Nixon’s playbook to assert the United States as a global superpower. While Nixon operated in a bipolar Cold War geopolitical structure and Trump in a multipolar world, their strategic use of unpredictability stayed evidently similar; showing that the Madman Theory transcends different geopolitical landscapes. But will this strategy work in a multipolar world that same way it did during the 1970s? The next four years will determine exactly how successful the Madman Theory is; and how effective it can be with modern-day challenges and enemies.

Disclaimer: the beliefs and opinions expressed by the students participating in the journal do not necessarily reflect the beliefs and opinions of the editors of the journal.

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