Legislation and Lethality: The Legacy of the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban

How the end of the assault weapons ban sparked a new era of mass shootings

In 1994, under the Clinton administration, the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) was passed with bipartisan support, marking a shift in American gun control policy. Ten years later, in 2004, Congress and the Bush administration allowed the ban to expire, legalizing the sale and manufacturing of the weapons previously banned. Today, more than twenty years after the expiration of the assault weapons ban, gun violence continues to be an extremely prevalent issue. A poll taken by Brady United analyzing the most pressing issues to voters during the 2024 presidential election revealed that 15% of voters thought gun violence was the most significant issue, and 67% of those polled declared gun violence a “major problem.” Furthermore, the federal government’s failure to renew the Federal Assault Weapons Ban in 2004 has helped to harm the American public according to John Donohue and Theodora Boulouta from the New York Times, who found that “in the decade after the ban, there was a 347% increase in fatalities in gun massacres, even as overall violent crime continued downward.”

On January 17, 1989, Patrick Purdy, a 24-year-old man described as a “drifter” according to NPR, brought his semi-automatic rifle to the Cleveland Elementary school in Stockton, California, where he fired 105 rounds in approximately a minute, killing five children and injuring 30 others, all of whom were enjoying recess on the school playground. Following the Stockton tragedy, coupled with other unprovoked tragedies involving assault weapons and “escalating turf and drug wars waged by urban gangs, a national debate sparked over whether legislation was needed to end, or at least restrict, the market for imported and domestic assault weapons.” Together, the Stockton tragedy, in addition to rising tensions concerning assault weapons, led to the adoption of the 1993 Brady Bill. The bill established background checks on those buying guns from arms dealers or arms manufacturers, and was named after James Brady, Ronald Reagan’s White House Press Secretary, who was wounded in the 1981 assassination attempt on Reagan. According to the New York Times and Carl Hulse, “the bill’s approval showed increasing bipartisan sentiment in Congress for gun control measures.” One year later, in 1994, Senator Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat from California, approached President Bill Clinton during a party retreat and encouraged the then-President to pursue a new ban, one that bans select assault-style weapons. The Clinton administration took up the legislation, but they faced struggles in convincing Southern and rural Democrats to back the ban, particularly with Representative Jack Brooks, a pro-gun Democrat from Texas who was chairman of the Judiciary Committee. Brooks led an effort to strike down the ban, succeeding in defeating the motion to bring the proposed ban to the floor with the backing of nearly 60 other Democrats. Clinton and his aides subsequently shifted their attention from gaining support from Democrats to moderate Republicans, many of whom were located in suburban or urban areas. Clinton worked primarily with two Republican Representatives, Mike Castle of Delaware and John Kasich of Ohio. The passage of the ban remained in a stalemate until Henry J. Hyde, a notable and well-respected Republican Representative from Illinois, announced his support for the ban, providing cover for moderate Republicans from their more conservative constituencies. On August 21, 1994, the House of Representatives voted 235-194 in favor of the ban, with 46 Republicans backing the ban and 64 Democrats opposing it. Following the national embarrassment that John Brooks faced with his failed striking down of the ban, he and several other pro-gun Democrats emphatically lost their seats during the 1994 midterms. Opponents to the ban advocated for several concessions within the ban, one of which resulted in a 10-year tenure. After the ban was in effect for 10 years, it required a re-vote for it to remain in place; this never happened, though, and the ban expired relatively unchallenged.

The Crime Bill, the overarching piece of legislation that included the assault weapons ban, passed with great fanfare in 1994. Ten years later, the assault weapons ban was terminated, without much fuss or fight. In June 2022, Glenn Thrush of The New York Times wrote an article analyzing the expiration of the assault weapons ban, where he interviewed Brian Malte, a former top official for the Brady Campaign, a group that was pushing for the ban’s reauthorization when it initially expired. Malte told Thrush that “you look around today, and there’s this incredible sense of urgency after Buffalo and Uvalde, but back in 2004, there was no enthusiasm to renew the ban among Democrats — none, by 2004, Columbine was in the rearview mirror, crime was going down and, well, everyone had kind of moved on” The assault weapons ban was popular enough during its short reign for George W. Bush to announce that if an extension for the ban were to land on his desk, he would sign it. Cunningly, Bush was aware that an extension would never reach him, as, at the time, Republicans closely allied with the National Rifle Association controlled both the House and the Senate, and had no intention of allowing the extension to reach the floor for a vote. Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee, the Majority Leader, on the eve of the ban’s expiration, said, “I think the will of the American people is consistent with letting it expire, so it will expire.” Wayne LaPierre, the National Rifle Association’s chief executive, said that the ban only affected the cosmetic appearance of guns. For the 2006 midterms, combating a Republican majority in both houses of Congress, Democrats downplayed gun-control policies in tight races, while encouraging pro-gun Democrats to run in battleground districts and states. This tactic yielded immense success, with Democrats retaining majorities in both houses of Congress. There have been several recent attempts to renew the assault rifles ban, but bipartisan support has been extremely challenging to achieve. Republican Representative Chris Jacobs from New York, following the racially targeted massacre at a supermarket in Buffalo, indicated that he may back a new ban. The backlash Jacobs received was so fierce that he reluctantly abandoned his re-election campaign. Moderate politicians who support gun-control measures, Jacobs, for example, have become more concerned with maintaining their position and in doing so, catering to the majority of their supporters, rather than establishing policies that they believe in. This has become a major issue within American politics and explains the immense disconnect between our two main political parties, which in turn has resulted in the inability for many bipartisan policies to be passed, as politicians no longer believe in country over party, but rather party over country.

In the decades following FAWB’s expiration, gun violence, especially mass shootings, has continuously risen, highlighting the immense failure of our federal government to adequately protect the American public. Brady United’s investigations into the ban’s results revealed that “during the 10-year period the federal assault weapons ban was in effect, mass shooting fatalities were 70% less likely to occur compared to the periods before and after the ban.” Brady United also conducted investigations into the utilization of assault weapons, and their necessity, yielding discoveries that 155% more people are shot and 47% more people die in incidents where assault weapons or large-capacity magazines are used, or in other terms, 14 times as many people are injured and twice as many people are killed in shootings involving assault rifles. Furthermore, as of September 2024, there are currently 19.8 million assault rifles in circulation in the U.S., a steep 132.9% increase from the number of assault rifles that were in circulation in the U.S. when FAWB expired in 2004. In addition to Brady United’s investigations, students at Northwestern University conducted their own research into the effectiveness of the ban, discovering that FAWB had prevented at least five public mass shootings between 1994 and 2004, and had the ban stayed in place, it would have prevented more than 38 mass shootings between the years 2005 and 2022. To complete this investigation, scientists at Northwestern Medicine filtered a public mass shooting to be an event taking place in public, where at least four people were killed by a firearm, not including the perpetrator, within 24 hours. The study included all public mass shootings, 184 in total, that occurred between 1966 (when the FBI began tracking them) and 2022. “The scientists used linear regression on a simple moving average of mass shootings per year. They looked at the trends before, during and after the ban was put in place and controlled for the national homicide rate. After estimation, the model provided counterfactual estimates of public mass shootings in two hypothetical scenarios; if the FAWB were never imposed and if the FAWB remained in place.” Returning to the previously mentioned research conducted by John Donohue and Theodora Boulouta of The New York Times, they learned that in comparison with the decade prior to FAWB’s adoption, the ban, in effect from September 1994 to September 2004, produced a 25% decrease in mass shootings and a 40% decrease in fatalities caused by gunfire. With the many third-party investigations into the effectiveness of FAWB all yielding similar results, the data strongly suggests that the assault weapons ban positively protected the American public, and its expiration has only increased harm and heightened gun violence.

The history and aftermath of the 1994 assault weapons ban demonstrate how legislative action can have a protective impact on American citizens. The ban focused on the betterment and safety of our society, rather than the promotion of a certain political party, something no longer possible with the ever-growing political divisions and influence of lobbyists in American politics. Given our current political climate, one that includes Republican majorities in each branch of government, the prospect of a bill or ban similar to the past one is becoming increasingly unlikely. Regardless, it is imperative for our government to attempt to pass gun control measures in order to preserve the liberties and freedom we have become accustomed to, including feeling safe and protected in public settings, especially schools.

Sources & Works Cited:

Donohue, John, and Theodora Boulouta. 2019. “Opinion | That Assault Weapon Ban? It Really Did Work.” The New York Times, September 4, 2019.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/04/opinion/assault-weapon-ban.html.

Elving, Ron. 2023. “The Nashville School Shooting Highlights the Partisan Divide over Gun Legislation.” NPR. April 1, 2023.

https://www.npr.org/2023/04/01/1167467835/school-shooting-assault-weapons-ban-history.

Hulse, Carl. 2019. “How Congress Passed an Assault Weapons Ban in 1994 (Published 2019).” The New York Times, September 7, 2019, sec. U.S.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/07/us/politics/congress-assault-weapons-ban.html.

Thrush, Glenn. 2022. “Democrats Failed to Extend Assault Weapons Ban in 2004. They Regret It.” The New York Times, June 10, 2022, sec. U.S.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/09/us/politics/democrats-assault-weapons-ban.html.

Travis, David. 1999. “Impacts of the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban: 1994–96.” Displays 20 (4): 163.

https://doi.org/10.1016/s0141-9382(99)00018-9.

Samuelson, Kristin. 2024. “Federal Assault Weapons Ban Could Have Prevented 38 Mass Shootings since 2005.” Northwestern.edu. Northwestern Now. 2024. https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2024/september/federal-assault-weapons-ban-could-have

Voter Attitudes on Role of Gun Violence Prevention in Upcoming….” 2024. The Brady Campaign. 2024.

https://elections.bradyunited.org/resources/voters-poll-gun-violence.

“On the 20th Anniversary of the Expiration of the Federal Assault Weapons….” 2024. Brady United. 2024.

https://www.bradyunited.org/press/federal-assault-weapons-ban.